Q2 2015 Share Price Performance (Part 2)

Sideways with moderate volatility for Tier 2 companies

In this blog, I am going to comment on the Q2 and H1 performance of the Tier 2 group of 52 companies with share prices of between $0.10 and $0.99 to start 2015.

Q2 2015 Tier 2 Performance

• Decliners outnumbered advancers by 29 to 23
• Average and median share price changes were -2% and -7%, respectively
•  Five companies had share price increases of 40% or more
  •  Medifocus (+188%) – bounce off a bottom triggered by a survival financing and a technology option
  •  Tribute Pharmaceuticals (+93%) – completed a financing and announced both product acquisitions and its own acquisition by Pozen (to be completed in Q4)
  •  Theratechnologies (+57%) – 2015 share price climb continues, supported by improved financial results
  •  Imperial Ginseng Products (+55%) – up on extremely low trading volume and minor news
  •  Sernova (+47%) – completed a small financing but jumped on no news back to 2014 high
•  Six companies had share price declines of more than 40%
  •  IMRIS (-40%) – filed for Chapter 11 protection, with Deerfield Management as the potential buyer
  •  NeutriSci International (-50%) – continues a 9-month share price decline
  •  Aeterna Zentaris (-51%) – the decline appears to be linked with the announcement of a new Phase 3 study of Macrilen
  •  Ceapro (-52%) – appeared to be increased trading volume linked to two good announcements (improved financials and technology development)
  •  Annidis Health Systems (-61%) – completed a survival financing with its Chinese partner but declined on very low trading volume
  •  Axxess Pharma (-63%) – continues a year-long decline

Q2 2015 Overview of Tier 2 Companies in the Canadian healthcare industry

 Q2 2015 Overview of Tier 2 Company Share Price Performance (Avg. Change %)

H1 2015 Tier 2 Performance

•  Advancers outnumbered decliners by 27 to 25
•  Average and median share price increases were +17% and +1%, respectively
•  Ten companies had share price increases of 40% or more (+42% to +328%) and ten companies had share price decreases of 40% or more (-43% to -78%)
•  The best performer in this group in H1 was Theratechnologies (+328%)

Q2 H1 2015 Overview of Tier 2 Companies in the Canadian healthcare industry

 Q2 H1 2015 Overview of Tier 2 Company Share Price Performance (Avg. Change %)

2014/2015 Sector Overview

Q1 has been the most positive quarter in both 2014 and 2015 for both the Tier 1 and 2 groups of companies. The other quarters appear to be a more balanced mix of advancers and decliners. The Tier 2 group has more volatility, based on the number of companies with price changes over 40%, which would be expected for the smaller cap companies.

Medical Marijuana Group

Eight medical marijuana companies listed on the TSX Venture Exchange are being monitored for share price performance in 2015 (tickers APH, BCC, BED, MT, OGI, TPI [now TBQBF on OTCBB), TWD; MJN added after Q1 report). Many of these companies have been public for less than 12 months, are in the early stages of commercialization and are not yet profitable. There are other companies in this sector which are listed on other exchanges or are private.

•  There were 7 decliners and only 1 advancer in Q2
•  Average and median share price changes in Q2 were -14% and -15%, respectively
•  Only 1 company, Canadian Bioceutical (BCC; +53%) had a substantial H1 share price increase (most of the jump was in Q1)
•  Tweed Marijuana (TWD) agreed to acquire Bedrocan Cannabis (BED); Bedrocan shareholders will be entitled to receive 0.4650 common shares of Tweed for each common share of Bedrocan

Looking Ahead

•  Broad stock market trends are negative as I write this blog. The Chinese stock market is sliding down as inexperienced Chinese retail investors panic. The Greece – EU/ECB/IMF confrontation is a second area of concern. U.S. earnings season is just starting and there are some signs of lower than expected growth. Uncertainty equals risk and risk makes money look for safety or the sidelines.
•  The U.S. pharma and biotech trends remain positive as M&A activity continues and there are enough positive Phase 3 trials and regulatory approvals.
•  Q3 is a slower quarter – people still take holidays – where there is usually less volatility, the exceptions being those companies with very positive or negative news.

[The author and his immediate family members may have long or short positions in the shares of some companies mentioned in or assessed during the preparation of this blog. Past share price performance may not be an indicator of future share price performance. This blog does not consider the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain professional advice based on their own individual circumstances before making an investment decision.]

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