April 25, 2014

Q1 2014 Share Price Performance (Part 2)

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Volatility has been a characteristic of the biotech sector since I became a stock analyst over 20 years ago. There are two types of volatility – selective movement of share prices based on fundamentals and sector-wide movement of share prices. When 25 of 99 companies in a sector have share price increases of 40% or more, and the average share price change for all 99 companies in Q1 is +27%, the share price movement has not been selective. Broad share price declines across the sector in the latter part of Q1 and the early part of Q2 support the argument that the Q1 movement was substantially momentum-based. This type of share price volatility does have two benefits for the sector – it reminds generalists and retail investors that there is a biotech and healthcare sector worth examining and companies can replenish their bank accounts.

In the remainder of this post I will comment on the Q1 performance of the group of companies with share prices of $1.00 or more to start 2014 and in coming posts over the next few weeks I will cover the other two share price categories.

  • Average and median share price increases were 33% and 16%, respectively
  • Eighteen companies – 30% of the companies in this group – had share price increases of 40% or more
    • Medicure Inc. (321%) – reported increased sales of AGGRASTAT Q1P2_GraphicSquare
    • Agility Health (215%) – increased trading volume (mid-January) and closed a private placement in two tranches for total gross proceeds of $3.4 million
    • Axxess Pharma (153%) – announced expanded U.S. sales channels
    • ImmunoVaccine Inc. (133%) – no new product-related announcements were made in Q1
    • Microbix Biosystems Inc. (130%) – filed a VIRUSMAX patent infringement proceeding against Novartis in the United States and won a patent challenge in Germany
    • Titan Medical Inc. (129%) – completed a financing for gross proceeds of $12.8 million and announced another financing subsequent to period end
    • BELLUS Health Inc. (115%) – announced that the Phase 3 Confirmatory Study of KIACTA is expected to conclude in 2016
    • Sernova Corp. (112%) – appointment of Frank Holler to the Board coincides with the start of the share price increase
    • Adherex Technologies Inc. (111%) – momentum started with completion of a financing in Q4 2013 and continued through publication of sodium thiosulphate Phase 3 trial results in Q1
    • GeneNews Limited (73%) – momentum started with debenture conversion in Q4 2013 and continued with announcement of expanded U.S. rollout of ColonSentry test
    • Trimel Pharmaceuticals (73%) – completed enrollment of Tefina Phase 2 clinical trial and a $10.5 million financing
    • IntelGenx Technologies Corp. (68%) – momentum started with completion of a financing in Q4 2013 and continued with positive Q1 clinical, regulatory and partnering announcements
    • Resverlogix Corp. (57%) – movement coincided with announcement of new data analysis from previously completed clinical trials of RVX-208
    • Antibe Therapeutics (55%) – completed financings and the preclinical program which should allow human studies to start later in 2014
    • Revive Therapeutics (49%) – started trading after completion of a qualifying transaction and announced some Phase 2 clinical progress
    • RepliCel Life Sciences (46%) – TSX-V listing and increased trading volume coincide with share price increases
    • Smart Employee Benefits (42%) – announced a financing and acquisitions
    • Vigil Health Solutions Inc. (40%) – reported increased revenues and continued profitability
  • Two companies had a share price decline of more than 40%
    • Miraculins Inc. (-44%) – continued downward momentum from 2013
    • Spectral Diagnostics Inc. (-52%) – uncertainty about the number of patients who will need to be enrolled in the ongoing Phase 3 Euphrates trial of Toraymyxin
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[The author and his immediate family members may have long or short positions in the shares of some companies mentioned in or assessed during the preparation of this blog. Past share price performance may not be an indicator of future share price performance. This blog does not consider the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain professional advice based on their own individual circumstances before making an investment decision.]

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